ryan on to richmond. the president also out and about today visiting a polling station in hisometown of chicago. the president returned to chicago last night after holding an emotional final rally in iowa. the state that launched his first white house bid. >> we know what our future requires. we know what real change is. you helped teach me that here in iowa. you know, what you also know is the change isn't easy. >> let me get you caught up on what's happening on the ground. nbc's peter alexander has more from the romney campaign. he's at their headquarters in boston. around this time yesterday, peter, we gotd word governor romney would go to pittsburgh as well as ohio and then added in virginia, three states in these final hours, the 11th hour. what's behind the strategy? >> reporter: well, it's interesting. if you didn't know that governor romney is not a sports fan, you'd think he was the head

coach of a football team with the language thrown around by romney advisers today. they say governor romney himself wanted to leave it all on the field. he didn't want to look back with any regret at the end of the game. governor romney we are told, initially the plan was by the campaign, for him to make na stop in ohio today. you see the pictures of him aalongside his running mate, paul ryan. an opportunity for a photo op. they say he's the one that said as long as we're out there, i insist on going to another place. where else can we go? that's why they'll stop in pennsylvania later today. romney on the ground in ohio having a chance to thank volunteers at a campaign offices, what they call their victory offices in ohio. also having a chance to try to get out some of the vote and motivate some of the people there. we're told, tamron, he made a stop at a local wendy's to say i'm like the rest of you ordering a burger without any cheese. so that's what he's doing. he prepares for the evening. he'll be back here at the campaign headquarters and hopes

to give an acceptance speech. he's been practicing for both. writing that speech on his plane on his own ipad hours aago. >> with everything contentious going to wendy's is so risky. so many love mcdonald's. thank you very much. let's go to nbc white house correspondent kristen welker in chicago. that president at that polling place, but his remarks yesterday, there's a photograph many have showed. we showed the video of the tear rolling down the president's eye as he addressed those folks in iowa. >> reporter: campaign officials say this is an incredibly nostalgic and historic moment for president obama. he ended his campaign in iowa, the state that delivered him his first victory in 2008. he and his campaign advisers have been doing a lot of reminiscing. they're also engaging in a lot of get out the vote efforts. president obama stopping by an obama campaign office as well

today, tamron, urging them to make as many phone calls as they can. the obama campaign feels as though this race rests on turnout. they feel confident about their get out of the vote strategy. it's something they've been working on for the past 18 months, and their goal is to bring together that coalition that delivered the president victory back in 2008. that winning coalition included african-americans, latinos, as well as young voters, of course, who are key to that. we talked about the nostalgia, tamron, that president obama and his campaign are feeling right now. one of the president election day traditions is to play a basketball game with closest friends and advisers. i'm told that e-mailed former body man reggie love last week and asked him to set that game up. that will take place later on this afternoon right here in chicago before the president, his family, and his friends and top add avisors sit down to watch election night returns.

>> thank you very much. let's bring in the political panel for this election day. keith boykin, nationally syndicated talk show host and msnbc contributor michael skirmonissh and steve dees is back with us. steve and keith, no fighting today. i'm not in the mood. everyone is tense. we want to know what's going to happen. the lady has put down her heel. i'm not playing with you. let's me start with michael here. michael, let's talk strategy for team romney going into pennsylvania. that is your home state. i believe no one knows it better. what do you make of this last-minute move? >> i understand it only if they think that they're not going to win ohio, and therefore, you got to do something like throw a hail mary in pennsylvania. i'll be really surprised if they can win this state, which no gop presidential candidate has done since '88. my gut tells me it's somewhere between a three and a five-point

obama victory in pennsylvania. >> mark, let me bring you in. you're in ohio. you heard michael say very clearly romney is in pennsylvania because they are not not sure about ohio or they are sure that they've lost it. >> an ohio poll done by university of cincinnati came out yesterday. it's the last one the state will do. had the president up by about a percentage and a half over romney, and that's pretty consistent with the trends. both campaigns, the republicans and democrats have excellent get out the vote efforts. i don't see either side to make a big advantage on election day with it. if those polls do reflect a little bit of where that vote is headed, it's going to stay there. >> i'm curious. this morning ed gillespie was on, and he asked about the auto bailout ad for the last couple of weeks. it's been the hot button issue. gm and chrysler chiefs say the ad was misleading. it may in the end be the ad if the working white voters in that

state are sfil upset with romney, it may be the one with the nail in the coffin if he loses the state. let me play what ed said this morning. >> the fact is the ad is accurate. the head of fiat came out and said they were going to open production in china for jeep. that's what the ad says, and that's accurate. look, if you -- >> that's a different idea -- >> mark, they're still standing by this ad being accurate despite every fact checker and the chiefs of these automakers coming out say it's not true. >> the reason they're playing it in ohio and standing by it is because one out of eight jobs in ohio is related to the auto industry in some way. 80 of the 88 counties have auto industry stuff in it, and this plays big. you have nothing to lose by making the charge. technically accurate but out of context. >> you have this to lose. if the issue is credibility and this is what the president says,

this is an election of truth of credibility, don't you have that to lose when it's proven the ad is not true? >> he's reaching out to his base. you're not going to convert that auto worker that already stands by the president did. it was an attempt to reach places in like defiance, ohio, an auto base but a rural area with social values and the issue of outsourcing jobs may try to work for his favor. that's reaching to the base and not converting new voterers. >> steve, what's your feeling at this point? as i point, you are conservative. i think you were the genuine article as far as your beliefs are concerned and you've stuck by them. you have not stuck by governor romney despite being a republican. what do you think today here now that we're a few hours out? >> i have to tell you, tamron, i'm fascinated to watch the punditry that i'm part of it debate this. the only person more nervous today than mitt romney and barack obama is nate silver at

"the new york times." he's either going to be who let the dogs out of political pundit or the wonder kid of our generation. when you put on the "new york times" in a close election a guy as a 92% chance of winning the day of the election, that's gutsy. i think him and a lot of respected forecasters and those that went all in on the president winning, and you have the conservative punditry and fox news crowd looking at the exact same data and told the audiences two different things. >> what about you? you fought for romney to lose the primary in your state. here's the day of reckoning. i don't care about nate silver and everybody else. what about you, the guy who is a conservative and republican and as of last week you weren't sure you were voting for governor romney or at least that's what you told me. >> if your mainstream media polling is as accurate as it was the last two campaign cycles, and it was about 96% accurate. if it's an accurate as it was,

barack obama will get elected again tonight. >> if obama wins -- >> let me finish my point. >> what dung it makes a difference though? >> i think -- look at my own state. i know of several senate districts in my own state where the republicans are going going to pick up a seat from the democrats and romney is trailing in the district. state reid in my state republicans will make gains in the legislature and likely fire another supreme court justice. i talked to an elected republican official in iowa who is more confident that romney will win pennsylvania than iowa. in the end this election has always been whether it will be a referendum on obama or a referendum on rom ney. i think that's what it will be when we get the final results tonight or sometime after november 17th when all those provisional ballots in ohio are count counted. >> it goes back to pennsylvania. i want to play what david plouffe said since you brought pennsylvania up again.

here's what plouffe said on "morning joe." >> in order for mitt romney to win pennsylvania tonight he has to win 66% of the independent vote. that's not going to happen in pennsylvania. that's not going to happen anywhere. the reason they're in pennsylvania is because they're not confident in their prospects of ohio, so they're throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it will stick. >> republican strategists say democrats are underestimating the fact that governor romney might be able to re-create something here. that the path to victory is not necessarily what we've been talking about for him. >> that's unlikely. there's two big problems. one is what rick santorum said during the primary campaign was right. that actually room any is the worst republican candidate to run against barack obama. secondly, there's the issue of president obama has run an incredibly effective campaign with the exception of the first debate, his campaign is effective in targeting mitt romney from the beginning and they painted him into a corner and held his positions against him. now the mathematically it's

difficult for romney to win right now. this is not just a question about nate silver and everybody else. obama is leading in seven of the nine swing states. romney has to win at least five of those swing states in order to win the election. he's nowhere near that right now. so in order for romney to win, almost all of the swing state polls have to be almost completely wrong, and that's unlikely. >> let me read what "the new york times" put in their article today. as the night unfolds, clues to the outcome will spill out. if exit polling indicates that mr. romney is exceeding the share of white vote that went to senator john mccain four years ago, that will be a sign that he is replicating the coalition that gave president george w. bush a second term. i will be stationed just below where we are right now looking at exit polling and providing the information there. what do you make of this going back to the white vote according to the "new york times"? >> i think the racial composition of the vote is one

tale tell sign if we're on our bark loungers tonight watching tamron hall report. we want to know that. we want to know what's going on in virginia after the polls close at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. if virginia goes to obama, it's a long nim for governor romney. >> steve, what are you watching? which battleground state, other than your own, that you're keeping an eye on that might be telling before the end of the night? by the way, this is governor romney and congressman ryan leaving ohio right now, steve. >> i agree with michael. i'm watching virginia. polls close there before i go on the air tonight. if obama wins, i think he wins the election. if it's a close obama or romney win, i think that it's going to be a long night. i think if romney wins by three or four points, he'll win the election. the reason that i think that is because the only way i believe romney wins is if there is some sort of chick-fil-a effect, if you will, that's not being

reported in the polls and there's a surge of the gop base. i've talked to a few gop consultants, and they think that will happen and carry mitt romney to victory tonight. if that is what happens, the polls are historically the most wrong they've been since 1980. >> whethn you say the quick filt effect, the more conservative your party, people like yourself? explain that. i know the chick-fil-a controversy. how are you incorporating it here? >> the chick-fil-a effect is -- if you would excuse and indulge me for a second, my peeps hate to be polled and don't answer polls or respond to polls. in many cases i took calls from listeners and facebook posts that were telling me they were misrepresenting who they were to pollsters they hate them so much. they were saying they were single black women that voted obama. who knows if those people surge. i think that's probably the only path to victory for romney

tonight. >> what has happened in the last couple weeks that would motivate social conservatives like yourself? governor romney pivots and abandons anything that would motivate social conservatives like your from abortion legislation to other issues. what would motivate in the last couple of weeks? the romney that showed up in this general election is not the romney that might have enticed your peeps to be enthusiastic. >> the only thing i can think of, your general analysis is correct. romney had them fired up after the first debate. they have this much disdain for this president's policies and staples center doesn't matter who the republican nominee is. >> that's the big part here. i posted a piece in the huffington post, and it showed 50 reasons why people should vote for barack obama. there was a lot of feedback on twitter and huffington post where people were opposed to what i was saying. it was all anti-obama. nobody has a pro-romney

argument, and even romney supporters aren't effectually for him. >> okay. >> my aunt delores in st. louis sick in the hospital today, i called her before i was on my way here. she didn't answer the phone, and then my cousin responded is because she doesn't like to pick up phone calls from numbers she doesn't remember. i think that's the thing about black people, about older people, about seniors, about young people, about people who are broke and a lot of people who are not being polled krektdkrekt correctly and i think the polls would show there's an undercount. >> i know a lot of broke white people that don't respond to polls either. >> aunt delores is not feeling well. i wish you the best and speedy recovery. polls close in florida in less than six hours and the secretary of state is predicting a record high turnout with up to 9 million people voting. up next i talk with danny vargas and the washington post's ann

kornbluth. the man everyone talks about when you refer to polls, nate silver of the new york fimz 538 blog. he predicts president obama has a 91% chance of winning re-election. the president will win 313 electoral college votes, governor romney will win 225. >> it's not a coin toss at that point. it's close, but you'd have to have a case where the polls are off across the board. it could happen, but if anything, the race has broken toward president obama a bit in the last 48 hours. >> that, by the way, was nate on last night on colbert. here's something funny making the rounds. lo look at this on social media. it reads keep calm and trust nate silver. join the election day conversation on twitter. you can find us at @tamron hall

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the lines have been long all day at so many polling locations in florida, the nation's largest swing state. they predict a record voter turnout today, 9 million people. that would top the record set four years ago by 600,000. kerry sanders joins us live from a polling location in orlando. what's the word on the ground there?

>> reporter: the word on the ground is it's very busy, as you know, for that 9 million, about 4.5 million voted early voting, that's absent tees or going to the polls early. look at the pictures here there. these are lines in and around orange county in orlando, florida. when you look at the line, you may say, what's taking so long? in addition to the presidential election, there are 11 constitutional amendment and questions on the ballot, and it's slow going because you may or may not know, sometimes people when they write to write constitutional amendments put it in extremely confusing language and double negatives and it's hard to understand. one of the amendments is 640 words. the ballot -- if you take a ballot in dade county and printed out a sample ballot, it's 12 pages long. so you can imagine even though people are arriving and maye made up their minds on the presidential race, there are other issues and other minor problems with when their finished with that feeding them

into the machines. if you feed them into the machines with three pieces of paper, that takes about a minute to feed all three pieces in. so you have a backup there. so far no serious problems. we're certainly not looking at a case of the florida we saw back in 2000. things are working and moving forward. >> an inkred number, 4.9 million floridians have already cast their ballot. thank you so much. let's bring in the political panel for right now. "washington post" depth pea national editor ann kornbluth and danny vargas. so much has been made about how it will break down with the latino population. you have some polls indicating the president is is around 73%. mitt romney is around 23%. you have cuban-americans, poeueo

ricans. you have this interesting dynamic formulating here, but overall when you look at nevada, for example, where foreclosures are up, the housing market is still struggling, unemployment up, the president could win nevada because of the latino vote there. >> that's true. i'll be honest with you, tamron. we've had this discussion before. i think my party is having a difficult time with the hispanic population, particularly in certain key areas. it's incumbent to make sure over the next several cycles we do everything we can to reach out to voters and talk about our shared interests and shared values and our shared principles. in this particular election i know that the economy and jobs the way hispanic families are hurting within this economy is what they take into account. it may not help us get to the point where we have a lion's share of the vote to help us win in certain key states, but it's the discussion we're having and move inning that direction about having that conversation. >> the conversation you're having year after year, george w. bush, karl rove, jeb bush all

indicated the importance for the republican party to pursue latino voters. you've digressed, so the conversation might be on the table. the bottom line is the republican party failed to recognize the importance of the latino community because you're going in the opposite direction. the numbers are getting smaller. >> i think we did a great job 2000 and 2004 with president bush. in 2004 we got 44% of the hispanic vote. >> what about this time? >> over the last several years we had several loud voices ashgs minority within the rep party voicing anti-immigration reform stances and that hurt us. it cast a veil on the dialogue we've been having. moving past it and moving towards solutions to talk about key issues where we have shared values on family and faith and growing economies and so forth. that's where the conversation needs to be. we have great elected officials that are hispanic republicans. the two hispanic governors in

the country are hispanic. that moves in the right direction. >> ann, is it a move in the right direction when the number is getting smaller? i know danny says a small group within the party, but you saw the republican primaries and the reaction to immigration, the criticism that the governor of my home state, rick perry, received after discussing some of the legislation and ideas coming out of texas and how to deal with children in this country by no fault of their own. how can danny and others say it's on the table if the numbers are getting smaller. >> that's interesting from the exit polling tonight, and depending on the outcome i think we'll have the answer whether the republican party can be a winning party with a small share of hispanic vote or whether going forward they need to increase their numbers. as you mentioned, this was something that was an obsession for george w. bush and karl rove and ken melman in office.

it's divided the republican party. there are some in the party, jeb bush and others, who believe that they're going to have to change that. we'll see how things go tonight. that will determine the future. >> if governor romney does lose tonight, do you believe the party will have to have as they call it where i'm from a come to jesus moment where you realize that you cannot exist with this limited model, especially with the change in our country as far as ethnic makeup? >> there will be soul-searching on that question, on the soul of the party overall. should it be more conservative? was it too conservative? nell all be aired at great length. >> thank you so much. great pleasure having you on. hope to see what you think of the outcome. thank you so much. voters in virginia are casting ballots today for the first time. under that state's new voter i.d. law, we've talked about the voter i.d. law. we'll give you an update in virginia. have you heard this? a voting machine was taken out of service after it changed a

vote for president obama into a vote for governor romney. but first, here's a look at the states where polls close at 8:00 eastern. we'll be keeping a close eye on florida, new hampshire and pennsylvania. [ timers ringing ] [ male announcer ] it's that time of year. time for campbell's green bean casserole. you'll find the recipe at campbellskitchen.com. ♪ campbell's. it's amazing what soup can do.

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♪ so you're free to focus on the things that really matter. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. or go to walmart.com for details. welcome back. let's head to virginia now. heavy turnout is leading to long lines throughout that state. today's election is the first test for the state's new voter i.d. law which requires voters to present state approved i.d. before casting a ballot. tom costello is near richmond, virginia where voters have been lined up since 3:30 in the morning with some people. how is it go here, tom? >> reporter: that's video earlier this morning of people lined up, 300 people before 6:00 a.m. this precinct has seen more than half of their registered voters cast votes. the key precincts and the key counties to watch here are going

to be virginia beach, the area around richmond, which is fairfax county, prince whim yams county. they all went for president obama in 2008, and then in 2009 and 2010 when she had state elections they went more republican. the democrats are watching closely to see will they come back to blue when they didn't really turn out in the last two elections? we'll see if this traditionally red state comes back to blue from 2008 in nose counties. something else is working here, tamron. this is a sample ballot, and this may be something that affects where the votes go for the presidency. in addition to the republican party and the democratic party, you can also vote for the constitution party, the libertarian party or the green party. you could see that some of these collections might siphon votes away from one candidate or the other. in the end of it's possible that you might see somebody win this election out of virginia with less than 50% of the vote.

back to you. >> incredible vote. the headline in "the cincinnati enquirer" reads it's all up up to us, ohio. the presidential campaign finally ends. we get an update from the buckeye state, plus chris van hollen will join the "news nation." i'll ask him about his thoughts on election day. be sure to check out our "news nation" tumblr page. you find behind the scenes photographs, newsnation.tumblr. look at the button. first, here's a look where i will be all night tonight live at democracy plaza bringing you the latest exit poll results for nbc and msnbc. ♪ [ male announcer ] the way it moves. the way it cleans. everything about the oral-b power brush is simply revolutionary. oral-b power brushes oscillate, rotate

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let's go to ohio right now where a legal battle over voting has already started. a federal judge is weighing claims that voting equipment used at some polling locations could lead to vote manipulation. the suit was filed by a green party congressional candidate. mitt romney's final visit to the state today marked the 84th visit by either candidate to the buckeye state. 18 very important electoral votes are at stake there. let me bring in former democratic congressional chairman congressman chris van hollen. thank you for joining us. i know you have a lot going on. let me get your feeling right now at this hour. >> there are long lines for votes all around the country, including my home state of maryland. we're hearing the same thing around the country. i feel good with respect to the president's election. as you indicated, it's going to come down to the fewle

battleground states, but the president has an edge in states like ohio and we detected a note of desperation from the romney campaign when they started to run these very deceptive ads with respect to to the auto industry that were so bad that even general motors and chrysler had to come out and call them on the carpet. that was clear a a sign of desperation from the romney campaign. >> let me ask you what could concern you at this point. we have a couple questions out there. can an incumbent president win when the unemployment rate below 8% or has his economic message worked? they throw out the auto bailout and the impact in ohio. what gives you confidence at this hour? >> i think the american people are fair-minded and they know the president inherited a really bad economy where we were losing 800,000 jobs a month and we've made significant progress since th then. we've seen job growth for 31

straight months. we're in a better position. the question has been should we continue that progress? should we accelerate that progress or go back to a set of policies mitt romney is recommending that we know help people like mitt romney but were a proven failure for the rest of the country? i think the american people are looking at that choice, and that's what gives the president the edge. >> congressman, let me play what house majority whip kevin mccarthy said. he was on "morning joe." we know a lot of the conversation from the voters is can anything get done in washington? here's at least some of his forecast of what is to be faced. >> we are going to have a fiscal cliff between now and the end of the year from the debt limit to the looming tax increases to sequestrati sequestration. all those ideas have been passed by the house to solve those. it's the senate that has not acted. i hope there's a big change in the senate as well to move america forward. >> what's your response to that,

congressman? >> kevin is right that we do have a fiscal cliff. we have a very different way of dealing with it. the president has put on the table a plan to deal with the fiscal cliff we should immediately extend tax relief to 98% of the american people. the republican position, the house tea party position has been no, no, no, no. nobody gets tax relief unless the very wealthy get a bonus tax relief. in other words, unless folks like mitt romney get a windfall tax break, the rest of the country cannot get tax relief. if you're serious about reducing the deficit, and we should be, you need to take the balanced approach that's been recommended by bipartisan groups that say you have to combine cuts but also revenue and ask folks at the very top to go back to paying the rates they were when bill clinton was president, which is the last time we had a balanced budget and the economy was doing just great.

>> i greatly appreciate your time. i hope to talk with you about the results tonight. >> thank you for having me. >> john yang is standing by in cincinnati. we know the importance. we know that at one point of time in the tarmac there was an image of joe biden's plane right here romney a's plane there. it's a big state tonight to watch. what are you hearing on the ground there, john? >> reporter: well, it's been very busy here, tamron. we're in a polling place in west cincinnati called price hill. all day long it's been busy here. a steady stream of voters for most of the morning. the line was out the door and along the side of the building. the first voters in line here at 5:00 this morning for the poll opening at 6:30. poll workers here say it's the busiest they remember it for any presidential elections. one of the two precincts that votes here by noon had double the number of voters they had all day in 2008. in addition to the votes, the people going to the polls today

before today, 1.8 million votes cast. those will be first votes reported tonight. tamron. >> thank you. now to wisconsin where congressman paul ryan cast his vote this morning in his hometown of jansfield. they show it's a tight race, certainly tighter than four years ago. the latest nbc/"wall street journa journal"/maris poll has a slight lead by barack obama. nearly 70% of eligible voters will cast a ballot. ron mott is in wisconsin. democrats have admitted that paul ryan has put this state in play for the republicans. >> reporter: good day to you. cold, rainy in the 40s here. turnout is pretty brisk in places like milwaukee, kenosha and madison. all places obama used to rack up

a win four years ago. much tighter race now. paul ryan is credited with making this state purple this time around. what impact that bitterly fought gubernatorial recall race had on this race. republicans won that battle, and some democrats have revenge in mind. the president said voting is the best revenge. democrats are out in force today, not a whole lot of problems at the polls. we heard about something that the "milwaukee journal-sentinel" is talking about. one polling machine broke down for 30 minutes. a lot left. we'll see if they come back after work today, tamron. >> a couple of quick updates. paul ryan wheels up in richmond, virginia. president obama stopping by a campaign office in chicago, but that was after the president at hope athletic center playing a little basketball with aroundy duncan, and mark ram ross and a couple of other friends.

there you have it. while we may have have seen the huge rallies this year like we did in 2004, nbc's first read team says this election could be more consequenceal. we're going to look at what's at stake tonight with nbc's senior political editor mark murray. first, there's a lot going on today, and here's one thing we thought you should know. nbc justice correspondent pete williams is reporting although there are no major efforts to prevent voting, several problems have cropped up. look at this video. it was taken by a voter in central pennsylvania near harrisburg. a voter using a touch screen machine is seen repeatedly trying to vote for obama while the machine registered a vote for romney. he informed official of the problem. the machine was taken out of service. ♪

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welcome back. we want to go to iowa. luke russert joins us. we know "the des moines register" endorsed governor romney. a lot of excitement in that statement and a lot of eyes are watching, look. >> indeed, tamron. six electoral votes. the amount the campaign spent here, these are the six most expensive in the country. early vote is huge here. it started september 26th. they have a plus 66,000 advantage in terms of democrats that voted early. 670,000 ballots cast early. that's a state record. republicans will try to make up that margin today. democrats are confident that they had enough independent votes to withstand the gop attack today. usually what you see, tamron, in iowa is that the democrats try to fortify their position because republicans outvote the democrats on election day. democrats are confident and it's

very, very tight. if he gets ohio, this could very well put him over the top with some more informant midwest cutting into the president's firewall. democrats are confident with theirigh early vote margin. >> that's the story of the night in the battleground states. in our first read team, we write this year's elections might not have the same huge rallies of four years ago or the unbridaled energy or enthusiasm but it could be a more consequenceal election with so much at stake. here's mark murray. let's just jump right into at least the first concern, the immediate concern, bush tax cuts. >> right. this is something that mitt romney is in favor of extending. president obama wants to he'll lame nature the tax cuts for those that make more than $250,000 a year. it's where they disagree and whoever wins will have the upper hand in the policy fight. >> the team writes the future of sbilgtszment programs, we saw the heat in florida putting

romney and ryan on their heels. here we are. >> i think most people are under the expectation if mitt romney ends up winning that some kind of deal like the paul ryan budget plan with the transformations of medicare and medicaid get past. a lot depends on whether democrats keep the control of the senate. president obama wants to make tweaks to those entitlement programs but not the broad overhauls that paul ryan and mitt romney have. >> on the short list the supreme court. you have this alleged war on women that democrats say exists, and the supreme court picks that could come. >> a good number of the supreme court justices are in their 70s, tamron. we could have one, two, maybe three supreme court vacancies in the next four years stichltz that's what the president has the biggest power to change things particularly for decades. president obama got two. if gets a second term, he could have four, maybe even five overall picks in an eight-year

pan. if republicans win they can make that court even more conservative. >> that is a big one. thank you very much, mark. really appreciate you coming by. presidential historian michael beshloff will join me. here's a look where polls close at 10:00 eastern, iowa, montana, nevada and utah. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? [ male announcer ] the way it moves. the way it cleans. everything about the oral-b power brush is simply revolutionary. oral-b power brushes oscillate, rotate

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no matter what the results are tonight, history will be made. whether it's the first black president getting re-elected or the first mormon as president. you were on with andrea mitchell. thank you for joining me. i was struck by juror analysis. let me play what you said to andrea over the weekend. >> this country is so divided between these two candidates, not necessarily only by ideas but also by gender, economic groups, ethnicity in some cases. i think that is something that the founders would have been

horrified by. >> obviously, the founders were not diverse. >> they were not. >> a very similar background and everything there. why were you struck this way? >> they were undiverse and very bad on giving rights to all sorts of groups in this society. someone like george washington would have said, you know, politics should stop perhaps not at the water's edge, but there should be some moments when the country coming together. in congress people suspend partisanship. lincoln talked about that when he talked about the mystic chords of memory that stretched back to every patriot's grave. another founder who disagreed with all this is james madison who said you should pursue your self-interest and fight as much as possible. if they all came back, they would feel madison's views are prevailing but washington is worried the country would be torn apart is a way coming to pass.

>> where we were today versus where this country was 2008, how do you compare the two now? >> well, i think you would have to say that congress is even more poisonous. that the chance -- you were talking a little earlier about the physicifiscal cliff. that's a huge problem in two months. at other times in american history, members of congress have not had to put their views aside, but in certain moments they've been able to cooperate across the aisle. now adays that's almost a penaly if you do that in your party in either house of congress. >> i was so struck by your analysis when you were on with andrea, and it's an honor to talk with you and get your thoughts. we'll see what happens tonight. that does it for this edition of "news nation" live from democracy plaza. i'm tamron hall. thank you for joining us. keep it here all night for primetime election coverage beginning at 6:00 eastern time. i'll be exit poll duty for the team here and on nbc. i'll see you tonight.

meanwhile, "the cycle" is up next. president obama: there's just no quit in america... and you're seeing that right now. over five million new jobs. exports up forty one percent. home values... rising. our auto industry... back. and our heroes are coming home. we're not there yet, but we've made real progress and the... last thing we should do is turn back now. here's my plan for the next four years: making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting american-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where... we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more. and ending the war in afghanistan, so we can... do some nation-building here at home. that's the right path. so read my plan, compare it to governor romney's... and decide which is better for you. it's an honor to be your president...

and i'm asking for your vote... so together, we can keep moving america forward. i'm barack obama and i approve this message. syou know, i've helped alot ofof people save a lot of money. but today...( sfx: loud noise of metal object hitting the ground) things have been a little strange. (sfx: sound of piano smashing) roadrunner: meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) awhat strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. we'rwith questions fromtump sombing elections.kies do you know where your polling place is? maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial.

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i'm s.e. cupp, and here's what's going on in "the cycle" today. not much. well, there is an election or so i'm told. we're going to talk a little bit that. i have some questions. are women allowed to vote? if not, i'm offended by that. >> i'm toure. for those who think this race is razor tight -- >> the race is as tight as they come. >> the look at other national polls show it's razor tight. >> it remains razor tight. >> yes. this race is razor tight. >> people razor tight is not a thing!